Prediction of long‐term polyethylene wear in total hip arthroplasty, based on early wear measurements made using digital image analysis

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Abstract

AbstractThe capability to reliably predict long‐term in vivo wear of polyethylene would be of great value for the early identification of problematic total hip designs. Formal quantitative estimates of long‐term polyethylene wear were made from a series of 197 patients who had a total hip arthroplasty and who were followed for a minimum of 10 years; the estimates were based on the wear that was apparent radiographically at nominally 2 years after the operation. A newly developed digital image‐analysis edge‐detection procedure was applied to 1,237 archived follow‐up radiographs. The edge‐detection measurements were analyzed with a robust regression random‐coefficients statistical formulation developed especially to address the distributions of wear rate observed across this population over time. Formal regression equations were reported, which can be used to estimate late‐wear depth for a patient radiographed at a 2‐year follow‐up visit. Series wide, the correlation between predicted and observed wear depths was 0.73 at 4 years, with a correlation decline of approximately 0.03 per additional year.